TAFE is central to Australia’s skills needs

06 November 2025

Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA) has recently published three major pieces of work – the Gen AI Transition Analysis Papers, the Gender Framework (released alongside the Gender Economic Equality Study), and the Jobs and Skills Roadmap for Regional Australia (Phase 1). Together they show the scale of change underway in the Australian labour market. For TAFE, the implications are clear; the public provider sits at the centre of the response to technological transition, entrenched inequality and regional skills shortages.

Changing nature of work

The findings on generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) confirm that most jobs are unlikely to vanish, but many will change. JSA’s analysis shows that around four in five workers are in occupations with low exposure to automation, and fewer than one in 20 are in roles at serious risk of replacement. Nearly half of the workforce sits in jobs with ‘medium augmentation potential’ where daily tasks will be reconfigured by new technology. For TAFE, this means that the qualifications delivered cannot remain static. Students in trades, care, digital and service industries will not only need technical competence but also digital literacy, critical thinking
and problem-solving skills.

The reality is that teachers are already under pressure and, unless governments provide sustained investment in professional development and modern facilities, the work of integrating AI into vocational education will become another non-resourced burden.

Gender matters

Alongside this technological shift, the gendered structure of the labour market remains one of the most persistent barriers to equity. The Gender Framework aims to mainstream gender and intersectional analysis across JSA’s work, while the Gender Economic Equality Study provides the evidence base that explains why this matters. That study introduced the Gender Segregation Intensity Scale, a new measure showing that in 2021 only 21 per cent of the workforce was in gender-balanced occupations, while more than two in five workers were in highly segregated jobs.

Occupational shortages intensify as segregation increases: 73 per cent of almost completely male-dominated occupations were in shortage in 2024, compared with 47 per cent of almost completely female-dominated ones.

Gender pay gaps compound the problem. Across 688 occupations, men out‑earn women in 98 per cent of them, and the accumulated 10-year occupational pay gap sits at more than
30 per cent.

The study highlights how these inequalities are compounded for Aboriginal women, Torres Strait Islander women and culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) women, who face some of the largest lifetime pay gaps in the country.

These findings are not abstract for TAFE. The gendered division of the workforce is mirrored in enrolments: men dominate trade courses while women are clustered in health, care and service programs. The result is that labour shortages in key feminised sectors such as aged care and early childhood education remain entrenched, while efforts to attract women into male-dominated trades can struggle without systemic support. The reports underline the need for resources that allow TAFE to recruit and support under-represented groups into these fields, and to properly value and fund qualifications in feminised industries. Without such investment, vocational education will continue to reproduce, rather than challenge, the inequalities of the labour market.

Regional nuances

Regional Australia adds another dimension. The Jobs and Skills Roadmap shows that one in six young people outside the cities are not in education, training or work and that essential service vacancies are far higher in the regions than in metropolitan centres. Apprenticeship completions remain low, limiting workforce supply. Yet regional workers report relatively high job satisfaction, which indicates that the barriers are structural – often due to lack of transport, housing and access to education.

TAFE is already the anchor provider in regional Australia, but campuses cannot solve these challenges without greater government commitment.

Investment in student housing, digital infrastructure and flexible delivery models is essential if regional communities are to share in national growth.

Flow on effects

Taken together, these reports illustrate how different forces intersect. The rise of AI will reshape administrative and technical work, which has gendered implications given who is most likely to hold those jobs. Gender segregation, in turn, feeds directly into shortages, especially in trades critical to the net-zero transition and in the care sector. Regional inequalities overlay both patterns, making it harder for young people to access pathways into stable employment.

In every case, the responsibility for responding to these concerns falls onto TAFE. Teachers and staff are already being asked to modernise delivery, embed equity initiatives and expand regional access, often without the resources required to do so.

The lesson for governments is that TAFE cannot continue to carry national priorities while operating underfunded, with resources outdated and overstretched.

Investment in staff capability, workload relief and modern infrastructure is a precondition for success.

Equity frameworks and regional strategies too must be backed by concrete funding for student support, facilities and teaching hours.

The Gender Economic Equality Study shows that occupational segregation drives shortages and inefficiencies across the economy. Only a strong public vocational education system has the necessary reach to address these problems nationwide.

Each report has laid out challenges facing Australia’s future, and each report has shown that well-funded TAFE and well-supported TAFE teachers and students, can play a role in overcoming these challenges. Each confirms that without public TAFE at the centre, Australia cannot meet its skills needs. JSA’s evidence is clear that to build a fair and future-ready workforce, governments must back TAFE teachers with the conditions, resources and respect required to deliver.

This article was originally published in The Australian TAFE Teacher, Spring 2025